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  • #6310
    edu
    Participant

    Hello,

    i was testing the strategies included in the course “The best 5 strategies”.

    This are the results with my broker:

    1) USDJPY is the worst one in LOSS
    https://ibb.co/nHCHZz

    2) EURGBP not so good
    https://ibb.co/fyBcZz

    3) EURUSD the best one
    https://ibb.co/eaKNZz

    i tried also the max 0,05
    https://ibb.co/bSw87K

    4) GBPUSD not so good
    https://ibb.co/n1u6uz

    according to this data is not so profitable to use all of them, probably only the eurusd with max 0,05
    What do you think?

    #6312

    Hello Edu,

    Glad to hear from you. Actually you did not do properly some of the tests, and also it is very important to optimize the EAs according to your Historical data. As I explain in the course, the brokers provide very different quotes/prices, and that is why you will see some bad or negative resutls from the EAs I included in the course. That is why there is a lecture in the course, where I teach how to do proper optimization.

    1. Regarding your Historical data, on USDJPY M1, I see that you have only 11479 bars on your FSB strategy, and with EURUSD and GBPUSD you have 65k. Make sure you get more bars for USDJPY, anyway 11k bars for M1 is really really small period of time.

    2. The 65 000 bars is limitation from Meta Trader that you can remove. Go to Tools – Options and click on Charts.

    Enter 9999999999999 as a number on both, and click on OK:

    Restart Meta Trader, and press again the Home Key for the small time frames as M1 and M5 Then export again the data with the script for FSB.

    And than you should make the test, and optimize the strategies using FSB as I show in the course

    #6315
    edu
    Participant

    thank you as always

    #6317
    edu
    Participant

    Hello again i did what you said and instead of 65K i have now 70K

    i try to optimize the GBPUSD strategy. The equity looks very well (see image) but probably the data aren’t so much.

    GBP USD BEFORE:
    https://ibb.co/dg57Zz
    gbp_usd_vecchio<br />how to delete a yahoo account<br />

    GBP USD NOW WITH NEW PARAMETERS:
    PIC 1#
    https://ibb.co/cuoY7K
    gbp_nuovo<br />how to delete a yahoo account<br />

    PIC 2#
    https://ibb.co/j1HAnK
    gbp_nuovo_2

    What do you think? should i keep yours (with more data) or should i use this?

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

    With EURUSD doesn’t change anything, and it keeps to look good with 0,03 and with 0,05

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
    With USDJPY i wasn’t able to do with more than 11k candle

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

    For EURGBP I have 56K for m15 and i tried to optimize it and something crazy happened.

    before
    https://ibb.co/fyBcZz
    EURGBP<br />bmw 535i m sport 0 60<br />

    after with parameters
    https://ibb.co/fgG3Pz
    eurgbp_new<br />bmw 535i m sport 0 60<br />

    https://ibb.co/f9mdPz
    eurgbp_new2<br />bmw 535i m sport 0 60<br />

    what do you think? What should i do?

    Thank you
    Edoardo

    p.s do you so 1 vs 1 consultant?

    #6318

    Hello Edu,

    you did a very good job! Only on the Slow MA period on the Moving Average crossover indicator. You see the ] sign after the 20. This means that it possible can give you a bigger number if you give it a bigger maximum range.

    You better test the parameters from your brokers data. You can run a Monte Carlo test to see if the strategies are not over-optimized.

    Also, EURGBP look really good on your data.

    What you need to do is just leave the Meta Trader opened, and it will collect you more bars with the time. After that just drag the scripts over the Meta Trader, and place the data in the FSB.

    You should try to generate strategies as well with FSB. Did you watch the free lectures that we have on the website from the developer of FSB? They are very useful, and they will give you better understanding of FSB.

    I do not do 1 on 1 lessons any more. Simply because, during the last 1 year I had more than 12 000 students joining my courses, and I couldn’t do it physically, and to answer all mails. That is why we started the forum. So this way, when someone ask questions just like you did, all the other students will see the answers and solutions, and the support is much more effective and faster.

    Let me know if you have any other questions.

    Kind regards,

    #6319

    Hello Edu,

    you did a very good job! Only on the Slow MA period on the Moving Average crossover indicator. You see the ] sign after the 20. This means that it possible can give you a bigger number if you give it a bigger maximum range.

    You better test the parameters from your brokers data. You can run a Monte Carlo test to see if the strategies are not over-optimized.

    Also, EURGBP look really good on your data.

    What you need to do is just leave the Meta Trader opened, and it will collect you more bars with the time. After that just drag the scripts over the Meta Trader, and place the data in the FSB.

    You should try to generate strategies as well with FSB. Did you watch the free lectures that we have on the website from the developer of FSB? They are very useful, and they will give you better understanding of FSB.

    I do not do 1 on 1 lessons any more. Simply because, during the last 1 year I had more than 12 000 students joining my courses, and I couldn’t do it physically, and to answer all mails. That is why we started the forum. So this way, when someone ask questions just like you did, all the other students will see the answers and solutions, and the support is much more effective and faster.

    Let me know if you have any other questions.

    Kind regards,

    #6323
    edu
    Participant

    hello thank you very much!

    i will try to collect more data (i don’t know how much time it will take), i am already using other EA so keep meta trader open isn’t a problem

    No i haven’t yet read the lecture but thank you for the suggestion!I will.
    ————————————————————————————————————————————————————

    Do you have some video about monte carlo test. i did it after cheched the 20] problem but i don’t know how to read it

    this are the results for GBPUSD:

    eurgbp_nuovo_forum<br />bmw 535i m sport 0 60<br />

    eurgbp_nuovo_forum2<br />bmw 535i m sport 0 60<br />

    ————————————————————————————————————————————————————

    This is the EURGBP MONTE CARLO

    FORUM<br />bmw 535i m sport 0 60<br />

    ———————————————————————————————————————————————————–
    I think this posts will be very helpfull for many students
    Thnk you again no problem for the coaching
    regards

    #6332

    Hello Edu,

    the free lectures are actually in video on the FSB Pro page: Tutorials for FSB Pro

    The results are negative with you in the Monte Carlo because you have used nearly all of the options. And because you have small data, your EAs probably are a bit over-optimized.

    With Monte Carlo I use it normally with the last 2 Strategy Variation, and I remove all the rest. Simply, the Monte Carlo in FSB Pro makes variety of test for the things you choose on the left side. So here it made many different tests with skip positions, slippage and so on. That is why the results is like that.

    Give it a try only with the last two, because these are about the strategy. And this is what we care about.

    The first one are the Market variations, if you have problems with your historical data(yours is just small) and the spread. Second are the Execution problems, which are about your broker. If you have such, you better change the broker.

    Let me know what are the results with the last two only.

    Kind regards,

    #6374
    edu
    Participant

    Good Morning Petko,

    i did the montecarlo test as you said.

    The results seems good, what do you think?

    EURGBP
    First parameter
    eurgbp_primo_test

    second parameter
    eurgbp_secondo_test

    and this was the equity
    eurgbp_new

    GBPUSD
    first parameter
    primo_prametro_gbpusd

    second parameter
    secondo_parametro_gbp_usd

    and this was the equity
    gbp_2192018

    #6377

    Good morning Edu,

    yes, this is another thing.

    The Randomize backtest starting bar option in FSB shows that the EA is robust no matter when you will start trading with it. Because normally when a trader takes an EA he starts always a t a future moment using it, not during the becktested period.

    Randomize indicator parameters is the strongest test for me. It performs variety of test using different parameters for your broker. For example, if you have the RSI period of 9, it will test it with 6,7,8,10,11,12.. You can set the options for the Monte Carlo from here:

    #6379
    edu
    Participant

    perfect i am happy to hear that My Monte Carlo tests went good.

    I tried also to increase the “number of tests” from 20 to 40 and it keeps to look almost the same. Should i change others parameters?

    From your experience now that you have confirmed me that this two strategies look robust, what should i do?

    A) Test in real
    b) Keep to collect more data

    and also should i try to optimize it every month like you do?

    EDU

    #6380

    Hello Edu,

    I always suggest the students to test sometime on Demo account before placing on real account. It is important to understand that it is a personal choice and responsibility when one will place the EAs for live trading.

    It is good to test it on Demo account until the moment you feel comfortable for live trading.

    And yes, you should collect more data, with the time your strategies will become more robust. Also, during the time you collect you can practice with FSB and create more strategies.

    Kind regards,

    #6389
    edu
    Participant

    Good Evening,

    yes obviously i will never ask to you to suggest me to invest. Today I tried the GBPJPY with the expert aadvisor studio after i have tried for 5 days this strategy in demo (every day in loss)

    this is the results:

    gbpjpybad<br />is ammonia harmful<br />

    I tried also to optime (after i watched your videos) but anything changed. What should i try?

    i would like also to ask you in a monte carlo test how i recognize an overoptimize strategy?

    have a nice weekend
    Edu

    #6391

    Hello Edu,

    this backtest looks bad. When you optimize in EA Studio, you have an acceptance criteria. Try to remove it, and do the optimization. This way you will see if the issue is there. If it passes, than try to make the acceptance criteria not so strict.

    The Monte Carlo itself is the robustness test for over optimization. If it fails, it means that the strategy is probably over-optimized.

    Another old method to see if a strategy is over optimized is to change manually some of the parameters in the indicators. If you see huge difference in the equity, this is also a sign that the strategy is over-optimized.

    Have a beautiful weekend too!
    Petko A

    #6401
    edu
    Participant

    Wow thank you i wasn’t aspecting a reply on saturday.

    So i tried as you said, here i removed the “acceptance criteria” and the equity changed

    test_senza_accepance_criteria

    after i try to put bigger criteria, but anything changed

    try_to_put_better_criteria

    So i try the montecarlo test. First parameter

    montecarlo1

    then the second (doesn’t look good)

    montecarlo_2

    What do you think? Should i remove this from the demo and try another ea?

    ————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
    Before i didn’t explain well, i was asking:

    If Monete carlo test:

    – Give me an equity similiar to my ea’s equity ——-> Good Strategy and not overoptimize
    – Give me a different equity ——-> overoptimize strategy

    is this correct?

    Thank you and again have a good weekend
    Edu

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